What is political science,
and how do we do scientific research?

PSCI 2270 - Lecture 1

Georgiy Syunyaev

Department of Political Science, Vanderbilt University

August 31, 2023

Plan for today


  1. What is (political) science?

  2. Empirical method

  3. Looking for questions

  4. Coming up with theory

  5. Causal and descriptive inference

  6. How to read articles

What is Science?


Science is…

A systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe

  • Goal: systematic knowledge

  • Conclusions: have uncertainty

  • Disciplined thinking: method

    • Empirical
    • Theoretical

Science is Curiosity

What is Political Science?


  • Political science: Same as science earlier +

    • Studies human behavior and institutions:
    • “Politics is more difficult than physics.” — Albert Einstein
    • Anything related to politics/governance sphere (i.e. pretty much everything)
  • Studying \(\Rightarrow\) explaining political phenomena

    • causal inference: Effect of \(X\) on \(Y\)
    • descriptive inference: Measure \(X\) or \(Y\)
  • But how are we different from other disciplines like political journalism?

We have METHOD 🤯

Empirical Method

What we should do:

  1. Ask question (puzzle)

  2. Come up with theory (model)

  3. Derive hypotheses (inquiries)

  4. Collect data

  5. Test hypotheses (analysis)

  6. Interpret

  7. Adjust theory (remodel)

What we do in (bad) reality:

  1. Uhh…

  2. Mix of:

    • Systematic searching
    • Accidental discovery
  3. Discover patterns in data

  4. Come up with some explanation

  5. Claim this is what you expected

🫠

Even More in Reality

Back to Good Practice

What we should do:

  1. Ask question (puzzle)

  2. Come up with theory (model)

  3. Derive hypotheses (inquiries)

  4. Collect data

  5. Test hypotheses (analysis)

  6. Interpret

  7. Adjust theory (remodel)

flowchart TB    
    subgraph Research
        direction LR
        M(Model) --> I(Inquiry) --> D(Data) --> A(Analysis) --> |Remodel| M(Model)
    end
    P{Puzzle} -.-> Research
    style Research fill:#282828,stroke:#fbf1c7,stroke-width:1px,color:#689d6a

Be TRANSPARENT! 🫥

Looking for the Question

  • Personal/Family experiences and histories!
  • Books, movies/TV series (e.g. Borgen, Veep, etc.)
  • Even social media: YouTube, Twitter ( \(\mathbb{X}\) ), TikTok, etc.

Theory of Theories

  • Theory \(\Rightarrow\) a model of the world that provides explanation of the causal relationship between two variables (\(X \rightarrow Y\)), or description of one variable (measure of \(X\))
  • Good models?

    1. positive: as “value-free” as possible
    2. verifiable: practical possibility of observing outcomes that could corroborate and falsify the theory
    3. falsifiable: Karl Popper (1902-1994)
    4. general: US Congress \(\Rightarrow\) legislative bodies (scope)
    5. concrete: clearly defined concepts (“strength of the leader”, “nature of the voters”, “intelligence of the policy maker”)

Find good models


Many individuals are driven in their behavior by their political convictions. Which statement applies to this theory?

  1. Not concrete
  2. Not falsifiable
  3. Not causal
  4. Normative
  5. A & D
  6. A & B

Find good models


If German voters had known the extent of Hitler’s extremism (in terms of political ideology and violence perpetrated) they would have not voted for him. Which statement applies to this theory?

  1. Not concrete
  2. Not testable
  3. Not causal
  4. Normative
  5. A, B and D

Find good models


Immigrants should receive citizenship immediately as soon as they start working legally (any job) in a foreign country. Which statement applies to this theory?

  1. Not concrete
  2. Causal
  3. Normative
  4. B and C

Find good models


The best predictor of a vote for Republicans in the United States is the state of the economy in the previous 4 years. Which statement applies to this theory?

  1. Not concrete
  2. Not testable
  3. Not causal
  4. Normative
  5. None of the above

Find good models


Many Trump supporters are rich. Which statement applies to this theory?

  1. Not concrete
  2. Not testable
  3. Descriptive
  4. Normative
  5. None of the above

Theories (Models)


  • Simplified picture of the world

    • Theoretically
    • Observationally
  • Use Occam’s razor

    • Prefer parsimony
    • Explain a lot with a little

“All models are wrong, but some are useful.” - George Box

Useful Wrong Model

5 Questions About Every Theory



  1. What’s my question? \(\Leftarrow\) Question

  2. Why is my question important? \(\Leftarrow\) Question

  3. What’s my answer to the question? \(\Leftarrow\) Model \(+\) Hypotheses

  4. How would I know if I were wrong? \(\Leftarrow\) Data \(+\) Analysis

  5. Was I wrong? \(\Leftarrow\) Interpretation \(+\) Remodel

💡 Income Inequality


  • Question: Why levels of social protection spending are low in the US?

  • Model: Income inequality will lead to higher voters’ pressure on government to provide social spending (median-voter theory)

  • Hypothesis: Higher income inequality will lead to higher social spending

  • Data/Analysis: Measure of pre-tax income inequality and government spending across OECD countries and look at correlation

  • Results: The relationship is actually in reverse…

REMODEL!

Kenworthy and Pontusson (2005)

💡 Gender Gap in Politics


  • Question: How having more women in politics affect political decisions?

  • Model: Having more women in legislative body can diminish “authoritative use of speech” by men, but this could depend on decision rule (majority vs unanimity)

  • Hypothesis: Women will be less interrupted under unanimity rule (compared to majority rule) but only when they are in minority

  • Data/Analysis: Laboratory experiment with random composition of groups and random assignment of decision rules

  • Results: Support for the hypothesis in terms of overall interruptions, but not in terms of positive interruptions

Mendelberg, Karpowitz, and Oliphant (2014)


💡 Discrimination


  • Question: Do politicians discriminate in the services they provide?

  • Model: In the US African-Americans are less likely to receive services from politicians regardless of partisan alignment

  • Hypothesis: E-mails sent from putatively black aliases are less likely to receive response by legislators

  • Data/Analysis: Audit experiment that randomly assigns aliases to e-mails sent to legislators across 44 US states

  • Results: E-mails with black aliases overall received over 5 p.p. less responses regardless of sender’s partisanship

Butler and Broockman (2011)


💡 Protests and Repression


  • Question: Why some protests lead to higher repression by government?

  • Model: In democracies governments that are more electorally stable do not expect to be held accountable for their actions and hence will choose to respond to protests with repression

  • Hypothesis: Holding other things constant, in Turkey where the government is more electorally secure, we expect higher levels of repressions against protesters

  • Data/Analysis: Comparative case study of Brazil, Turkey and Ukraine during large national uprisings in 2013

  • Results: The only considered factor that coincides perfectly with the use of repression against protesters is government’s security in office

Aytaç, Schiumerini, and Stokes (2017)



💡 Effects of Partisan Media


  • Question: How does watching Fox News affect political views and beliefs?

  • Model: Partisan media engages in partisan coverage filtering that leads to viewers being exposed to different sets of news

  • Hypothesis: Bi-partisan media exposure will lead Fox News viewers to realize that Fox News conceals some facts and as a result adjust their media diet and trust in media

  • Data/Analysis: Online experiment that incentivizes regular Fox News viewers to watch CNN combined with content analysis of both media outlets

  • Results: Exposure to CNN leads to less trust in Fox News, more agreement with CNN (vs. Fox News) coverage, lower support for Trump

Broockman and Kalla (2022)


Reviewing Literature


  • What do we know about topic related to \(X\)?

  • What do scholars think causes \(X\)?

  • What do scholars think \(X\) causes (what are its effects)?

  • In research about \(X\), do scholars use statistical analysis or case studies?

  • Which particular cases do they study?

  • The more specific the questions, the easier it will be to organize what you find

Relying on Reputation


  • Books from a university press with a reputation

    • Cambridge, Princeton, MIT, Harvard, Cornell, Oxford, Stanford, Michigan
    • Beware of mimicry by bogus presses (Cambridge Scholars Publishing - bad, Cambridge University Press - good)
  • Journals with a reputation for publishing good research

    • American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Political Science Research and Methods, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Political Analysis
    • Subfields: International Organization, Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Peace Research, World Politics, Comparative Political Studies
    • In Economics: American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy
    • Especially helpful: Annual Review of Political Science, Journal of Economic Literature

Reading Yourself

Section Content
Abstract Short summary-make sure you understand this!
Introduction 1. The questions the paper will try to answer
2. Why it’s important to know those answers
3. A summary of what the answers are and how they were found
Theory 1. The outcome variable (thing to be explained or measured)
2. The independent variables (things that explain outcome)
3. Hypotheses about measure of or effects on outcome
Data/Methods 1. How and what data is collected
2. How variables are measured using this data
3. Technique(s)/Method(s) used to test the hypotheses
Results 1. Do estimated relationships correspond with hypotheses?
2. Statistical and substantive significance of estimates
3. Checks of alternative explanations
Conclusion Broader implications for the field of study
Appendix/Replication archive Usually online: all details needed to verify the procedures and results and possibly to replicate

Next Time


  • Dive into why falsifiability is important

  • How to build a map ( DAG ) of your theory

  • What is operationalization and why is it important

  • How do we choose units of analysis and sample

References

Aytaç, S. Erdem, Luis Schiumerini, and Susan Stokes. 2017. “Protests and Repression in New Democracies.” Perspectives on Politics 15 (1): 62–82. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592716004138.
Broockman, David, and Joshua Kalla. 2022. “The Manifold Effects of Partisan Media on Viewers Beliefs and Attitudes: A Field Experiment with Fox News Viewers.” OSF Preprints 1: 142.
Butler, Daniel M., and David E. Broockman. 2011. “Do Politicians Racially Discriminate Against Constituents? A Field Experiment on State Legislators.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (3): 463–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00515.x.
Kenworthy, Lane, and Jonas Pontusson. 2005. “Rising Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Affluent Countries.” Perspectives on Politics 3 (03). https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592705050292.
Mendelberg, Tali, Christopher F. Karpowitz, and J. Baxter Oliphant. 2014. “Gender Inequality in Deliberation: Unpacking the Black Box of Interaction.” Perspectives on Politics 12 (1): 18–44. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592713003691.